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Post by vannahyazon on Apr 26, 2016 4:19:17 GMT
In our article, JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY: HEURISTICSAND BIASES by Amos Tversky etc. it mentions how "Imaginability plays an important role in the evaluation of probabilities in real-life situations." The risk involved in an adventurous expedition, for example, is evaluated by imagining other scenarios that could occur that and that one can't handle. If many such difficulties are vividly portrayed, the expedition can be made to appear exceedingly dangerous, although the disasters imagined aren't necessarily probable to occur. "Conversely, the risk involved in an undertaking may be underestimated if some possible dangers are either difficult to conceive, or simply do not come to mind."In other words! You may overestimate a possibility and deem something too dangerous or risky and thus not end up choosing to do that something OR you may underestimate or not even be able to imagine a possible dangerous occurrence and get yourself hurt. Either way, the ability to imagine influences the degree to which we perceive our choices and thus the risks we end up taking or not.  What Makes Someone A Risk-Taker? This video describes a study done that divides risks into types: financial, health/safety, recreational, ethical, and social. It displays that people who may take risks in categories we usually associate with taking risks like recreational with skydiving etc. may not take risk in finances or vice versa. Questions: 1. What risk types are you most likely to take? 2. Does your imagination influence these types of risks & How does it/doesn't it?
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Post by cliffordzhang on Apr 26, 2016 4:35:51 GMT
It makes sense that our imagination is vital to making a decision that involves risk. Humans wouldn't have survived this long if we didn't think of and evaluate all the possible consequences of an action. It's ingrained into our DNA. Of course nowadays, our lives are more than just about making the right choices to survive, but the instincts still remain.
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Post by vannahyazon on Apr 26, 2016 5:39:57 GMT
It makes sense that our imagination is vital to making a decision that involves risk. Humans wouldn't have survived this long if we didn't think of and evaluate all the possible consequences of an action. It's ingrained into our DNA. Of course nowadays, our lives are more than just about making the right choices to survive, but the instincts still remain. I agree! Imagination can boil down to survival, especially since there were nomadic people who risked crossing oceans and mountains and hunters who faced dangerous predators. But i wonder how far each person's "all possible consequences" are. Especially now that we are just making "right choices" in daily life, we don't have to think about insane possibilities all too often. In that sense i really do wonder how limited or perhaps greater our imaginations are than our millions of years old ancestors. |
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Post by dchang on Apr 27, 2016 3:00:48 GMT
For me personally, I am more likely to take recreational risks out of all the other types. This is because recreational risks are the ones I would be able to afford to take. And I definitely agree with what cliffordzhang said about imagination. I believe that humans rely greatly on the imagination of the future when making decisions of the future, which can often times be a question of whether or not to take a risk. If we are able to imagine potential harms that we think are too intense for us to handle, then this would often times translate to not taking the associated risk. |
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Post by vannahyazon on Apr 27, 2016 5:24:03 GMT
For me personally, I am more likely to take recreational risks out of all the other types. This is because recreational risks are the ones I would be able to afford to take. And I definitely agree with what cliffordzhang said about imagination. I believe that humans rely greatly on the imagination of the future when making decisions of the future, which can often times be a question of whether or not to take a risk. If we are able to imagine potential harms that we think are too intense for us to handle, then this would often times translate to not taking the associated risk. Yeah, i agree that recreational risks are often the ones that our generation can afford to take. I feel like specifically in terms of recreation, our generation loves to do "Instagram worthy" things like bungee jumping, skydiving, cliff diving, and zip-lining, so the risk is often times worth it. The imagination is although limited because of our use of media to play it out. So, i feel like we end up neglecting the other types of risk (financial pops up because UCLA is expensive). |
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dalia
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Post by dalia on Apr 27, 2016 6:16:49 GMT
I think that I'm most likely to take engage in recreational risks because the benefits always seem to outweigh the risks which are usually perceived as short term or temporary; at least for me  For example, the perceived joy of going hiking or parasailing (having a good time with friends, taking amazing pictures, the experience itself) outweigh the perceived risks (possibility of injury). In economic terms, the marginal utility of engaging in such activities is higher than the marginal cost. Basically, it provides instant gratification at a low cost. However, for things that we usually associate as having more profound effects on our lives, like money, I think people are usually less likely to make such risks. Mainly because the consequences are associated with being long term (not marginal), especially when it comes to financial risks, as opposed to recreational (twisting your ankle or getting hurt). All in all, I think it ties back into what we explored in the marshmallow test about instant versus long term gratification. Its much harder to suppress getting instant satisfaction for long term satisfaction, which is a probably reason people choose to engage in recreational risks rather than financial. Sorry, I guess I went on a tangent. Going back to your question about imagination, basically, its harder to imagine long term effects, while immediate benefits or costs are easy to see, which explains the reason behind my choices (recreational vs financial) and others with similar choices. P.S: love the spongebob picture  |
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Post by elipshutz on Apr 28, 2016 3:52:06 GMT
Personally I am most likely to take risks either if the reward is very large, or if the chances of something bad happening is highly unlikely. If you think about it lots of things in everyday life are a risk to some extent. When I walk down bruin walk their is always the possibility that someone will run into me on their skate board. When I enroll in a class their is the possibility that I will fail. Each time someone gets in the car or drives that is a risk. However, it would be silly to stay locked up in a room out of fear of getting hurt, or failing, or some other negative consequence. Instead it is important to be aware of all the potential risks and the probability of them happening. Also I think in large case scenarios it is also important to have an idea of how one would react in a situation if the risk ends up bad. For example for driving a car. It is a risk for anyone to drive a car. However, people are more comfortable with people driving if they have a license because they are prepared to handle any unexpectedness.
My imagination influences my risks because if I can more easily imagine the consequences than I am less likely to take the risk. If i can more easily image the reward I am more likely to take the risk.
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Post by hrhunter on Apr 28, 2016 5:41:11 GMT
I am on the same page as everyone else with mainly partaking in recreational risks. I am an adrenaline junkie, and when I am "imagining" the risks that come with these activities, I'm usually pretty optimistic in thinking that consequences will never happen to me. I have never been injured doing something like hiking, riding a rollercoaster, cliff jumping, etc., so I guess since it has not ever happened to me it is hard for me to imagine that it ever will. And like everyone has said, the rush of adrenaline that comes with doing these activities, in my opinion, far exceeds that potential consequences, especially since they seem so unlikely.
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Post by vannahyazon on Apr 28, 2016 20:41:23 GMT
I think that I'm most likely to take engage in recreational risks because the benefits always seem to outweigh the risks which are usually perceived as short term or temporary; at least for me For example, the perceived joy of going hiking or parasailing (having a good time with friends, taking amazing pictures, the experience itself) outweigh the perceived risks (possibility of injury). In economic terms, the marginal utility of engaging in such activities is higher than the marginal cost. Basically, it provides instant gratification at a low cost. However, for things that we usually associate as having more profound effects on our lives, like money, I think people are usually less likely to make such risks. Mainly because the consequences are associated with being long term (not marginal), especially when it comes to financial risks, as opposed to recreational (twisting your ankle or getting hurt). All in all, I think it ties back into what we explored in the marshmallow test about instant versus long term gratification. Its much harder to suppress getting instant satisfaction for long term satisfaction, which is a probably reason people choose to engage in recreational risks rather than financial. Sorry, I guess I went on a tangent. Going back to your question about imagination, basically, its harder to imagine long term effects, while immediate benefits or costs are easy to see, which explains the reason behind my choices (recreational vs financial) and others with similar choices. P.S: love the spongebob picture I totally get it! Especially in our day and age instant gratification or instant results often come first or easier, so it's much more likely we'll go for the recreational risks! Haha & thanks i had to! xD |
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Post by vannahyazon on Apr 28, 2016 20:44:00 GMT
Personally I am most likely to take risks either if the reward is very large, or if the chances of something bad happening is highly unlikely. If you think about it lots of things in everyday life are a risk to some extent. When I walk down bruin walk their is always the possibility that someone will run into me on their skate board. When I enroll in a class their is the possibility that I will fail. Each time someone gets in the car or drives that is a risk. However, it would be silly to stay locked up in a room out of fear of getting hurt, or failing, or some other negative consequence. Instead it is important to be aware of all the potential risks and the probability of them happening. Also I think in large case scenarios it is also important to have an idea of how one would react in a situation if the risk ends up bad. For example for driving a car. It is a risk for anyone to drive a car. However, people are more comfortable with people driving if they have a license because they are prepared to handle any unexpectedness. My imagination influences my risks because if I can more easily imagine the consequences than I am less likely to take the risk. If i can more easily image the reward I am more likely to take the risk. That reminds me of The Princess Diaries lol "the Brave may not I've forever, but the cautious do not live at all". We daily take risks whether we consciously realize it and it does have to do with preparedness and willingness to take risks that would especially inhibit their daily lives. Interesting how it seems to be very reward based! |
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Post by vannahyazon on Apr 28, 2016 20:45:51 GMT
I am on the same page as everyone else with mainly partaking in recreational risks. I am an adrenaline junkie, and when I am "imagining" the risks that come with these activities, I'm usually pretty optimistic in thinking that consequences will never happen to me. I have never been injured doing something like hiking, riding a rollercoaster, cliff jumping, etc., so I guess since it has not ever happened to me it is hard for me to imagine that it ever will. And like everyone has said, the rush of adrenaline that comes with doing these activities, in my opinion, far exceeds that potential consequences, especially since they seem so unlikely. Do you think your perspective would change if you did get hurt? I feel like this in now going into how tangible and how much solidarity/experience we have with the effect! I personally am not an adrenaline junkie and have never gotten injured, so it's different for me, in a different way! |
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dalia
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Post by dalia on May 4, 2016 7:05:47 GMT
Personally I am most likely to take risks either if the reward is very large, or if the chances of something bad happening is highly unlikely. If you think about it lots of things in everyday life are a risk to some extent. When I walk down bruin walk their is always the possibility that someone will run into me on their skate board. When I enroll in a class their is the possibility that I will fail. Each time someone gets in the car or drives that is a risk. However, it would be silly to stay locked up in a room out of fear of getting hurt, or failing, or some other negative consequence. Instead it is important to be aware of all the potential risks and the probability of them happening. Also I think in large case scenarios it is also important to have an idea of how one would react in a situation if the risk ends up bad. For example for driving a car. It is a risk for anyone to drive a car. However, people are more comfortable with people driving if they have a license because they are prepared to handle any unexpectedness. My imagination influences my risks because if I can more easily imagine the consequences than I am less likely to take the risk. If i can more easily image the reward I am more likely to take the risk. That reminds me of The Princess Diaries lol "the Brave may not I've forever, but the cautious do not live at all". We daily take risks whether we consciously realize it and it does have to do with preparedness and willingness to take risks that would especially inhibit their daily lives. Interesting how it seems to be very reward based! This reminds me of a quote from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar: "Cowards Die Many Times Before Their Deaths, The Valiant Never Taste Of Death But Once"! It's one of my favorite quotes xD |
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Post by jreitsma on May 4, 2016 19:00:14 GMT
Risks that I would most likely take would be risks of failure. Because there is always a risk of failure in many of the things we do in life. School was one of them, when deciding to attend UCLA or not I was running the risk of failure, of not doing well in classes and thus failing or having to drop out. A risk that I am very glad that I took. We have to take risks in life, you could say everything we do in life is a risk. Some are worth taking, and some aren't. If the possibility to achieve a goal is so worth wild even if you do fail at first, is worth taking. Thomas Edison and many other people have failed hundreds of times at greatly something that seemed so time-consuming yet magnificent if achieved. egardless of the odds against them and the risk of losing years of their lives, their imagination changed the world forever. Imagination is indeed a wonderful gift, that is necessary for breakthroughs in our world.
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For example, the perceived joy of going hiking or parasailing (having a good time with friends, taking amazing pictures, the experience itself) outweigh the perceived risks (possibility of injury). In economic terms, the marginal utility of engaging in such activities is higher than the marginal cost. Basically, it provides instant gratification at a low cost. However, for things that we usually associate as having more profound effects on our lives, like money, I think people are usually less likely to make such risks. Mainly because the consequences are associated with being long term (not marginal), especially when it comes to financial risks, as opposed to recreational (twisting your ankle or getting hurt). All in all, I think it ties back into what we explored in the marshmallow test about instant versus long term gratification. Its much harder to suppress getting instant satisfaction for long term satisfaction, which is a probably reason people choose to engage in recreational risks rather than financial.